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Steelhome website publishes monthly report of eight kinds of steel and
raw material products including construction Steel, HRC/CRC, medium
plate, stainless steel, iron ore, coke, scrap and ferroalloy on the
5th of each month. If you are interested in SteelHome Monthly
Report, please contact
Annieli@steelhome.cn£»Info@steelhome.cn,
or dial 86-21-50585733/50585368/50585358
Summary:
Monthly
Report on China HRC/CRC Market for May, 2009
China
HRC/CRC price rallied in May. Figures from Steelhome website disclosed
that up to May 31, prices of 1.0mm CR sheet, 2.75mm HR coil and 5.75mm
HR coil gathered from 28 key cities averaged CNY4392, CNY3680 and CNY
3520 per ton, a growth of CNY196, CNY174 and CNY178 per ton compared
with the end of April.
Price
rebound in international market, expanding domestic demand, increased
money supply and rising ex-works price of steel mills would bolster
steel prices in domestic market. However, overcapacity, bullish import
and shrinking export would bring about huge supply pressure. HRC/CRC
price is expected to sustain the ¡°technical rally¡± accompanied by
periodical vibration.
I
China HRC/CRC
prices rallied technically in May
I.1
China HRC/CRC supply remain high
I.2 HRC/CRC
export plunged significantly in April, compared with successive rise in
the import.
I.3 HRC
supply hover highly in light of the output recovery, export slump and
rapid import.
I.4
Favorable factors loom out in Chinese economy, HRC/CRC inventory showed
different development trend.
II
HRC/CRC
Market Outlook in June
II.1
International prices bounced up on massive output cutbacks
II.2
More credit loans available eased money supply in China
II.3
Raw material cost boosted
II.4
Chinese steel mills raised the ex-works price of HRC/CRC
II.5
Domestic output increased further
II.6 No
improvement in HRC/CRC export
Table 1£º
SteelHome (China) Steel Price Index for May 2009
Table
2: HRC/CRC prices in key markets in May 2009 (price in CNY/ton)
Table
3: China HRC/CRC output in Jan.-Apr. 2009 (quantity in million tons)
Table
4: HRC/CRC import and export in April 2009 (quantity in 10000 tons)
Table
5: HRC ex-works price adjustment in May (price in CNY per ton)
Table
6: CR coil ex-works price adjustment in May(price in CNY/t)
Graph
1: Average price of HRC/CRC in key Chinese markets in 2008-2009
Graph
2: Monthly output of HR coil in 2008-2009
Graph
3: Accumulative output of HR coil in 2008-2009
Graph
4: Monthly output of CR coil in 2008-2009
Graph
5: Accumulative output of CR coil in 2008-2009
Graph
6: Daily output of HRC/CRC in 2007-2009
Graph
7: HRC monthly import and export in 2008-2009
Graph
8: CRC monthly import and export in 2008-2009
Graph
9: HRC supply and growth in 2008-2009
Graph
10: CRC supply and growth in 2008-2009
Graph
11: Average daily supply of HRC/CRC in 2007-2009
Graph
12: HRC/CRC inventory in key Chinese markets in 2007-2009
Graph
13: Daily sales of HRC in Shanghai market in 2008-2009
Graph
14: Steelhome (Global) Steel Price Index
Graph
15: HRC price in key countries in 2007-2009
Graph
16: CRC price in key countries in 2007-2009
Graph
17: Steelhome China raw material price index in 2007-2009
Monthly
Report on China Construction Steel Market for May, 2009
China
construction steel market rallied in May due to higher ex-works price,
abundant credit loans and erupted demand. In China , fix-asset
investment, and spendings on real estate industry and new infrastructure
projects are rising rapidly, which bolster steel demand.
Given
construction steel price is significantly higher than HRB and medium
plate, steel mills get great fever in producing construction steel. We
expect China construction steel market will maintain upward trend in
June but it would go up unsteadily.
I
Analysis on China construction steel market in May
I.1
Production grew fast while exports dampened
I.2 Fix
asset investment and property industry investment increase rapidly,
which calling for great demand for steel
I.3
Market inventory continue to drop
I.4
Steel mills raise ex-works price, which to some extent push up steel
price in spot market
II
China construction steel market in June
II.1
Construction steel production maintains high growth
II.2
China will continue to implement concrete measures to wash out backward
capacities, stimulate economy and boost demand
II.3
Real estate industry, as major consumer of construction steel, show some
signs of recovery recently
II.4
Ample cash liquidity
II.5
Raw material price continue rising, which pose great pressure on the
operation of steel mills
Table 1:
Spot
Price of
China
wire rod/rebar in May
Table 2: Ex-works price of construction steel
Graph 1:
Q235
6.5mm wire rod price trend in May, 2009 (CNY per tonne)
Graph 2:
HRB335
20mm rebar price trend in
May 2009
Graph 3: Construction steel monthly output and growth in 2008-2009
Graph 4: Accumulative output and growth of Construction steel in
2008-2009
Graph 5: Daily output of construction steel in 2008-2009
Graph 6: China construction steel import in 2008-2009
Graph 7: China construction steel export n 2008-2009
Graph 8: China billet/slab impor/expo in 2008-2009
Graph 9: Monthly apparent consumption of construction steel in 2008-2009
Graph 10: Accumulative apparent consumption of construction steel in
2008-2009
Graph 11: China Township FAI in 2008-2009
Graph 12: Real estate industry investment in 2008-2009
Graph 13: China construction steel inventory in 2008-2009
Graph 14: China money supply in 2008-2009
Monthly Report on China Iron Ore Market for May 2009
China iron ore price picked up entirely in May with total increment
hitting CNY 10-40. Local mines were not in high spirit of recovering
production due to lower market price than their expectation.
Imported iron ore transaction at spot market expanded and lots of
enquires came from domestic purchasers. Since the launch of the initial
iron ore long-term contact price between Rio and Nippon Steel, trader
are deliberated to drive up spot price as it is much lower than
expectation.
Stimulated by substantial ocean freight growth, iron ore import price
picked up entirely at the early of June, narrowing the price gap between
domestic one, which further promoted domestic ore price rise. Once
import price climbs up to the level of domestic one, domestic steel
mills will turn to home market, and at the time, miners will consider to
recover production again.
I China iron ore price stabilized with increase in some
regions in May
II Analysis on iron ore market in June
II.1 Iron ore supply in June will keep rising
II.2 Imported iron ore price jumped up as a whole
II.3 Ocean freight shot up
II.4 Iron ore inventory at ports augmented persistently
II.5 China steel price moved up entirely in May
II.6
Initial FY 2009 international iron ore long-term contract price
II.7 Rising imported ore price is conducive to domestic production
recovery
Table 1:
China iron ore price in Jul.2008-May, 2009
Table 2:
Steel Price Changes at Domestic Market
Graph 1: China iron ore price trend in 2008-May 2009
Graph 2: China iron ore output & import in 2008-Apr.2009
Graph 3: Price contrast between domestic and imported ore in 2008-May
2009
Graph 4: International ocean freight in 2008-May 2009
Graph 5: China iron ore imports & inventory at ports in 2008-May 2009
Monthly Report on China Scrap Market for May 2009
Scrap price in Chinese market went up successively in May. By region,
purchase prices of scrap in East China and North China were commonly
uplifted by CNY 50-100 per ton underpinned by expanding orders of
steelmakers, and that in Central South China and Northeast China
basically flatted with last month. This month, scrap imports in China
firmed up, but since import price touched the high level of last year
end, parts of domestic steelmakers gradually left overseas markets for
domestic markets.
Chinese steel market is expected to maintain the growth in production
and price in short run, which will support scrap market. SteelHome
predicts that scrap price in domestic market will be bullish in first
half of June and then head down during the latter half period.
I Review on China scrap market of May 2009
I.1 Domestic scrap price inched up
I.2 Steelmakers¡¯ scrap inventory & purchasing price adjustment
I.3 International scrap price in uptrend in May
II Outlook on domestic scrap market in June 2009
II.1 Scrap supply in China to tighten
successively
II.2 Scrap imports growth to continue
II.3 Chinese scrap demand to warm up
II.4 International scrap price growth to slow down
II.5 Related products price inclined to go up
Table 1:
Scrap
price adjustment of key steel mills in May
Graph
1: China HMS price of key markets in May 2009
Graph
2: HMS price VS rebar price in East China in May 2009
Graph
3: Scrap consumption & inventory of Chinese steelmakers
Graph
4: Average price of HMS in Japan in May 2009
Graph
5: China scrap import volume & import price in Apr.2009
Graph
6: China scrap import price in May 2009
Graph
7: China iron-to-steel ratio VS scrap price in 2009 |
